DAMPAK PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH DAN WISATAWAN SERTA INVESTASI SWASTA TERHADAP KINERJA PEREKONOMIAN BALI: SUATU SIMULASI MODEL SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX

Abstract

Bali's economic development is focused on agriculture, tourism and industry as the
first priority. While other part of the Indonesia economy were suffering severely due to
economic down turn since the middle of 1997, Bali's economy seems less affected. The
performance of Bali's economy was analyzed employing 1996 Social Accounting Matrix
(SAM), constructed based on 55x55 accounts. It is assumed that this 1996 SAM could
represent the present situation of Bali's economy.
The impact of increased allocation of expenditures for economic infrastructure,
without increased in total government expenditure, on the performance of Bali’s economy
was relatively low. While increased allocation of expenditure on social infrastructure or
public services without increase in total government expenditure would deteriorate
substantially the performance of Bali’s economy.
Maintaining the government expenditure for development as in 1996 levels, but an
increase in the expenditure of tourists or private investment, would enhanced the performance
of Bali’s economy. Even a decline in government expenditure could be compensated by an
increase in tourist expenditure or private investment, suggesting that government expenditure
was not the main sources of economic growth.
However, an increase in tourist expenditure without effort to increase the government
expenditure would affect the income distribution among household group towards more
inequality. But, increase tourist expenditure as well as government expenditure would
promote better income distribution.