Estimation of Green Land to Urban Change Based on Cellular Automata (CA) Method in Singaraja City and its Surrounding Areas
Abstract
Singaraja city is the second largest city in Bali which have a fairly rapid growth. Growth and development of the region in urban areas of Singaraja give the positive impact on the economy of the community but also give the negative impact on the environment. Land use change and land conversion into one of the negative issues of the development of urban areas in Singaraja. This study intends to calculate the amount of land conversion occur on the green land into urban areas within 14 years (2001-2015) and predict land use change in 2020 and 2025 in Singaraja City and Its Sorrounding Areas. Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 imageries were used to determine the land use map. Land use map obtained through the process of image classification using supervised method then verified using data field. Land use maps in 2015 and 2001 used to obtain the amount of change of urban areas and green land during the period of 14 years. This results show increasing amount of urban areas as 11,37% (3.153,74 ha) whereas green land decreased by 11,17% (3.097,68 ha). Land use change was predicted by Markov method. The projection results show the amount of urban areas in 2020 was 27,40% (7.598,45 ha) and 35,97% (9.974,55 ha) in 2025. The results obtained with this prediction accuracy rate of 0.91.
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