MODEL INVESTASI FUZZY UNTUK ANALISIS KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL USAHA DIVERSIFIKASI INDUSTRI BERBASIS TEBU

Abstract

Financial analysis is required to prevent the failure of a project when it is implemented. The obstacles and risks
of the Prolect implementation that might arise should be minimized. The analysis is complex due to uncertain
future situation. Fazzy approach is one of the methods to examine and handle this uncertainty. This research is
aimed to study finzy financial feasibility indicators, to arrange fuzzy fnancial feasibility model, and to apply this
model to bioethanol industry as a derivate of sugar cane product. Feasibility indicators of fazzy rnvestment model
studied included NPV Fuzzy, IRR Fuzzy, and B/C Ratio Fuzzy. Raw materials cost, selling price, and interest
rate made as fuzzy variables with Triangular Fuzzy Number (ffN) representation. Model feasibility information
was categorized into four categories; unfeasible, fairly feasible, feasiSle, and very feasible. Model validation was
conducted by comparing rhe fuzzy method output with conventional method.
Model verffication on bioethanol industry using fuzzy method showed this industry was feasible to be developed
based on assumption of 10 years project periods, with Rp 18.910.000.000 NPV; L.46 B/C ratio; and 253o/o
IRR. Calculation using fuzzy method gave different results from conventional method calculation, however it
showed on the same trend.