PROYEKSI PRODUKSI DAN PERMINTAAN JAGUNG, PAKAN DAN DAGING AYAM RAS DI INDONESIA (Projections of Maize, Feed and Chicken Meat Production and Demand in Indonesia)

Abstract

Assessment on “Projections of Maize, Feed and Chicken Meat Production and
Demand in Indonesia is focused to analyze a balance between the domestic
production and demand for the next ten years, as well as to analyze its level
response to influence factors.This research used the national time series data for
1980 to 2001 period. The econometric model (simultaneous regression) approach
through the two stage least squares (2SLS) method had been implemented in order
to reach the objectives of this research. The projection results shown that on
technology level and policies unchanged, the domestic production from those
commodities until 2010 year are predicted not sufficient to meet its demand, so that
targeting for the maize and chicken meat self-sufficient in 2005 can not be reach. It is
better, if effort to increase of the corn domestic production is more prioritized on
improvement of the technology aspect, because corn productivity is more response
to this aspect than to the other ones. The feed production and demand that were
more response to the maize price than to the feed price, and also the chicken meat
production and demand that were more response to the chicken meat price itself
than the feed price proofed that the feed market structure in Indonesia tend is close
to oligopoly market structure.