PERAMALAN PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO (PDRB) PROVINSI BALI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES

  • I GUSTI NGURAH ARYA WANAYASA Universitas Udayana
  • I PUTU EKA NILA KENCANA Universitas Udayana
  • DESAK PUTU EKA NILAKUSMAWATI Universitas Udayana

Abstract

The purpose of this research is forecasting the growth of the GDRP in Bali Province on 2011. The fuzzy time series method and Holt-Winter’s exponential smoothing method used to forecast the GDRP in Bali Province on 2011 by using the data of Bali Province’s GDRP constant prices of year 2000 from first quarter of 1991 until fourth quarter of 2010. Then, the forecasting result of both methods compared by see the AFER and MSE value on each method. The comparison result shows the forecasting method by using Holt-Winter’s exponential smoothing is 7.13% while using the fuzzy time series method is 0.64%, these shows the forecasting using fuzzy time series method have a higher accuracy rate compared to Holt-Winter’s exponential smoothing method with the difference of forecasting error rateis6.49%.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

I GUSTI NGURAH ARYA WANAYASA, Universitas Udayana
Jurusan Matematika Fakultas MIPA
I PUTU EKA NILA KENCANA, Universitas Udayana
Jurusan Matematika, Fakultas MIPA
DESAK PUTU EKA NILAKUSMAWATI, Universitas Udayana
Jurusan Matematika, Fakultas MIPA
Published
2012-09-16
How to Cite
ARYA WANAYASA, I GUSTI NGURAH; NILA KENCANA, I PUTU EKA; NILAKUSMAWATI, DESAK PUTU EKA. PERAMALAN PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO (PDRB) PROVINSI BALI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES. E-Jurnal Matematika, [S.l.], sep. 2012. ISSN 2303-1751. Available at: <https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/mtk/article/view/1776>. Date accessed: 10 aug. 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.24843/MTK.2012.v01.i01.p003.
Section
Articles

Keywords

GDRP forecasting; fuzzy time series; Holt-Winter’s exponential smoothing

Most read articles by the same author(s)