Forecasting of Paddy Grain and Rice's Price: An ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Model Application

Abstract

A decision making for a long-term paddy grain and rice price guidelines need a future price prediction and a forecasting model that made based on time progression. The most popular model used is ARIMA. The common problem in forecasting the paddy grain and rice in Indonesia using this model was choosing the best model which fit all type of forecasting. This study aimed to determine the most appropriate ARIMA Model and forecast paddy grain and rice’s price on the farmer level, wholesale level, and international level. The prediction began after the stationary test and the best model selection conducted. The ARIMA model used was chosen by the lowest AIC and SC accuracy value. ARIMA Model used in this study were grain price on the farmer level (1,1,2), grain price on the milling level (1,1,2), rice price on the wholesale level (1,1,3), and rice price on the international level (3,1,7). The rice price prediction in the next sixth months on the farmer level was IDR 5,905.15/kg and the actual price was IDR 5,524.89/kg, on the milling level was IDR 6,014.35/kg and the actual price was IDR 5,641/kg, on the wholesale level was IDR 12,163.92/kg and the actual price IDR 12,115/kg, while the on the international level was US$ 462,065/Ton and the actual price was US$ 408/Ton. This study concluded that the price list at a different level of the market was requiring a different model of ARIMA.