PERKIRAAN DAMPAK KRISIS KEUANGAN TERHADAP EKONOMI, KHUSUSNYA SEKTOR PERTANIAN DAN AGRIBISNIS DI INDONESIA

Abstract

Beginning from the monetary crisis of Bath-Thailand, then gradually to spread to
south-east Asia Countries and finally has been Indonesia monetary crisis started the third
week in July 1997. Monetary crisis this time to indicate that Indonesia economics more and
more open and integrated with world economics. Really Indonesia to face three kind crisis
i.e.: (1) Exchange rate crisis where depreciation of rupiah value toward dollars, (2) foreign
debt crisis in big quantity, which made by private and government, and (3) probably so
infected by diminishing expectation of the community toward various of economics and
financial institutions
To measure the impact of monetary crisis toward quantitatively economics can be not
acted now yet. What that can be acted is to expect its impacts toward economics, especially to
agriculture or agribusiness sectors. For need of this research-collected macroeconomics data
in the last time that sources from secondary data, processed and analyzed. Because this
research especially to expect the impact of monetary crisis toward agriculture or agribusiness
sectors, so the agriculture data collected, processed and analyzed detailer.
The result of analysis to indicate that monetary crisis in Indonesia that indicated by has
been weak of rupiah value to dollars, has impact toward agriculture or agribusiness sectors.
Yet, impact intensity depend on: (1) sources of raw material (domestic or foreign), (2)
structure of output marketing for domestic or international, and (3) structure of capital, equity
and firm portfolio of agribusiness mentioned. Viewed from costly structure and return, so
portion of import of input and export of output in agriculture sector significantly to influence
toward performance of agriculture or agribusiness sectors.
For the agriculture or agribusiness firms that using domestic raw material in theirs
production process, monetary crisis maybe not influence so big, if mostly theirs output
exported, this crisis will positive impact. Yet, if agriculture or agribusiness firms using raw
material from foreign in its production process (example cotton), monetary crisis has influence
toward costs structure (increase the cost of input and output per unit) to be bigger. If theirs
output market for domestic, so will be gloomier. In this condition, monetary crisis has negative
influence toward performance of agribusiness mentioned.
Result of the monetary crisis, need be acted a reevaluation to measure rate of return
(ROI) investment in agriculture sector. In the last time ROR in agriculture sector only range
15 percent. Not impossible if this monetary crisis has made the populace agriculture is not
interesting for investor.