Ensemble Model of Precipitation Change Over Indonesia Caused by El Nino Modoki

El Nino Modoki; Ensemble Model; Precipitation Change; Square Error Skill Score

Abstract

The aim of this research is to understand the impact of El Nino Modoki into Indonesian precipitation and how ensemble models can simulate this changing. Ensemble model has been recognized as a method to improve the quality of model and/or prediction of climate phenomenon. Every model has their own algorithm which causes strength and weakness in many aspects. Ensemble will improve the quality of simulation while reducing the weakness. However, the combination of models for ensembles is differ for each event and/or location. Here we utilize the Squared Error Skill Score (SESS) method to examine each model quality and to compare the ensemble model with the single model. El Nino Modoki is a unique phenomenon. It remains debatable amongst scientists, many features of this phenomenon are unfold. So, it is important to find out how El Nino Modoki has changed precipitation over Indonesia. To verify the changing precipitation, the composite of precipitation on El Nino Modoki Year is divided with the composite of all years. Last, validating ensemble model with Satellite-gauge precipitation dataset. El Nino Modoki decreases precipitation in most of Indonesian regions. The ensemble, while statistically promising, has failed to simulate precipitation in some region.