PENENTUAN KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI SAHAM MENGGUNAKAN CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM) DENGAN PENAKSIR PARAMETER STOKASTIK

Abstract

CAPM is a method of determining efficient or inefficient stocks based on the differences between individual returns and expected returns based on the CAPM’s positive value for efficient and negative value for inefficient stocks. The move to share prices in the process can influence investors's decisions in investing funds, so that it can be formulated in stochastic differential equations that form the Geometric Brownian Motion model (GBM). The purpose of the study is to determine return value using the CAPM based on share estimates and historical stock prices. The study uses secondary data that data a monthly closing of stock prices from December 2017 to December 2020. The GBG model's estimated stock price is used to determine the expected value return using the CAPM. In this case, it is called CAPM-Stochastic. Then the results of the CAPM-Stochastic was compared to the results of the CAPM-Historical to define efficient stocks and inefficient stocks. The results of research using CAPM-Stochastic obtained that HMSP, ICBP, KLBF, and WOOD shares are efficient stock while UNVR shares are inefficient. The results of CAPM-Historical obtained that HMSP, ICBP, KLBF, and UNVR shares are inefficient stocks and WOOD is an efficient stocks.