PENGGUNAAN MODEL ARIMAX UNTUK MERAMALKAN DATA CURAH HUJAN BULANAN DI BALI

CHAIRUN NISA; I WAYAN SUMARJAYA; I GUSTI AYU MADE SRINADI

doi:10.24843/MTK.2021.v10.i04.p341

PENGGUNAAN MODEL ARIMAX UNTUK MERAMALKAN DATA CURAH HUJAN BULANAN DI BALI

CHAIRUN NISA Universitas Udayana
I WAYAN SUMARJAYA Universitas Udayana http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7213-8170
I GUSTI AYU MADE SRINADI Universitas Udayana http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1309-044X

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24843/MTK.2021.v10.i04.p341

Abstract

Erratic raifall in the future has a major effect on life. Extreme rainfall can result in vaarious natural phenomena that have a negative impact in various fields work. The aim of this research is to find the best rainfall forecastng model in Bali using ARIMAX modeling, namely the transfer function model with an indeks Nino 3.4 as the input series. The transfer function model is a time series model that combines the regression approach and the ARIMA model for its error. Forecasting results suggest that the rainfall is linearly related to the Nino 3.4 indeks in the previous month. The best rainfall forecasting model has a value Akaike information criterion (AIC) is equal to .

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Author Biographies

CHAIRUN NISA, Universitas Udayana

Program Studi Matematika, FMIPA Universitas Udayana

I WAYAN SUMARJAYA, Universitas Udayana

Program Studi Matematika, FMIPA Universitas Udayana

I GUSTI AYU MADE SRINADI, Universitas Udayana

Program Studi Matematika, FMIPA Universitas Udayana

Published

2021-11-30

How to Cite

NISA, CHAIRUN; SUMARJAYA, I WAYAN; SRINADI, I GUSTI AYU MADE. PENGGUNAAN MODEL ARIMAX UNTUK MERAMALKAN DATA CURAH HUJAN BULANAN DI BALI. E-Jurnal Matematika, [S.l.], v. 10, n. 4, p. 186-191, nov. 2021. ISSN 2303-1751. Available at: <https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/mtk/article/view/80275>. Date accessed: 26 apr. 2024. doi: https://doi.org/10.24843/MTK.2021.v10.i04.p341.

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