IMPLEMENTASI METODE MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO DALAM PENENTUAN HARGA KONTRAK BERJANGKA KOMODITAS

  • PUTU AMANDA SETIAWANI Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
  • KOMANG DHARMAWAN Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
  • I WAYAN SUMARJAYA Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Abstract

The aim of the research is to implement Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method to price the futures contract of cocoa commodities. The result shows that MCMC is more flexible than Standard Monte Carlo (SMC) simulation method because MCMC method uses hit-and-run sampler algorithm to generate proposal movements that are subsequently accepted or rejected with a probability that depends on the distribution of the target that we want to be achieved. This research shows that MCMC method is suitable to be used to simulate the model of cocoa commodity price movement. The result of this research is a simulation of future contract prices for the next three months and future contract prices that must be paid at the time the contract expires. Pricing future contract by using MCMC method will produce the cheaper contract price if it compares to Standard Monte Carlo simulation.

Author Biographies

PUTU AMANDA SETIAWANI, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
KOMANG DHARMAWAN, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
I WAYAN SUMARJAYA, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
Published
2015-08-30
How to Cite
SETIAWANI, PUTU AMANDA; DHARMAWAN, KOMANG; SUMARJAYA, I WAYAN. IMPLEMENTASI METODE MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO DALAM PENENTUAN HARGA KONTRAK BERJANGKA KOMODITAS. E-Jurnal Matematika, [S.l.], v. 4, n. 3, p. 122 - 126, aug. 2015. ISSN 2303-1751. Available at: <https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/mtk/article/view/15105>. Date accessed: 11 nov. 2019. doi: https://doi.org/10.24843/MTK.2015.v04.i03.p099.
Section
Articles

Keywords

futures contract; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Standard Monte Carlo; hit-and-run sampler