Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Menggunakan Model Altman, Springate, Grover, dan Zmijewski pada Perusahaan Sektor Consumer Cyclicals
Abstract
The bankruptcy prediction model is useful for knowing the condition of the company. The aim of this research is to obtain empirical evidence regarding consumer cyclical sector companies that are predicted to go bankrupt using the Altman, Springate, Grover, and Zmijewski models, as well as the differences between the four models. The sample determination method uses a purposive sampling method. The data used is secondary data in the form of financial reports for 2020-2021 obtained from the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The analysis technique uses the formula for each model, the Mann-Whitney test and the Kruskal-Wallis test. The research results show that there are companies in the consumer cyclicals sector that are predicted to go bankrupt using the Altman, Springate, Grover, and Zmijewski models, and there are differences between the four models. The results of this research provide information to company management to evaluate company performance, especially in consumer cyclical sector companies that are predicted to experience bankruptcy.
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References
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Dewi, I. A. P., & Ramantha, I. W. (2019). Prediksi Kebangkrutan Menggunakan Model Grover, Zmijewski, & Altman Pada LPD di Kabupaten Gianyar Tahun 2013-2017. E-Jurnal Akuntansi, 29(3), 1041–1054. https://doi.org/10.24843/eja.2019.v29.i03.p10
Donaldson, L., & Davis, J. H. (1991). Stewardship Theory or Agency Theory: CEO Governance and Shareholder Returns. Australian Journal of Management, 16(1), 49–64. https://doi.org/10.1177/031289629101600103
Edi, & Tania, M. (2018). Ketepatan Model Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, dan Grover dalam Memprediksi Financial Distress. Jurnal Reviu Akuntansi Dan Keuangan, 8(1), 79–91. https://doi.org/10.22219/jrak.v8i1.28
Fauzi, S. E., Sudjono, & Saluy, A. B. (2021). Comparative Analysis of Financial Sustainability Using the Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski and Grover Models for Companies Listed at Indonesia Stock Exchannge Sub-Sector Telecommunication Period 2014-2019. Journal of Economics and Business, 4(1), 57–78. https://doi.org/10.31014/aior.1992.04.01.321
Hartono. (2019). Predicting Financial Distress Using Altman Score, Grover Score, Springate Score, Zmijewski Score (Case Study on Consumer Goods Company). Journal Accounting, Financial, Auditing and Taxation, 08(01), 1–16. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.32400/ja.23354.8.1.2019.1-16
Hosaka, T. (2018). Bankruptcy Prediction Using Imaged Financial Ratios and Convolutional Neural Networks. Expert Systems With Applications, 117, 287–299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2018.09.039
Ilmiyono, A. F., Octavianty, E., Adriansyah, M., & Bon, A. T. (2021). Analysis to assessment potential bankruptcy of the company in state owned enterprises agriculture sector. Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, 7(11), 4269–4280.
Iswahyudi, M. (2022). Zmijewski, Taffler, Springate dan Grover Model : Analisis Model Prediksi Kebangkrutan. EKUITAS : Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi, 10(1), 129–137. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.23887/ekuitas.v10i1.46831
Khotmi, H. (2020). Analisis Perbandingan Prediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan dengan Model Altman Z-Score, Springate, dan Grover. Valid Jurnal Ilmiah, 17(2), 162–173. http://journal.stieamm.ac.id/index.php/valid/article/view/150/116
Kou, G., Xu, Y., Peng, Y., Shen, F., Chen, Y., Chang, K., & Kou, S. (2020). Bankruptcy Prediction for SMEs UsingTransactional Data and Two-Stage MultiobjectiveFeature Selection. Decision Support Systems, 140, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2020.113429
Lestari, R. M. E., Situmorang, M., & Pratama, M. I. P. (2021). Financial Distress Analysis using Altman (Z-score), Springate (S-Score), Zmijewski (X-Score), and Grover (G-Score) Models in the Tourism, Hospitality and Restaurant Subsectors Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange Period 2015-2019. Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, 7(11), 4249–4259. http://www.ieomsociety.org/singapore2021/papers/755.pdf
Matejić, T., Knežević, S., Arsić, V. B., Obradović, T., Milojević, S., Adamović, M., Mitrović, A., Milašinović, M., Simonović, D., Milošević, G., & Špiler, M. (2022). Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Hotel Industry Bankruptcy Risk through Novel Forecasting Models. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(8), 1–44. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14084680
Nur, D. A. R., Ismadharliani, A., & Sudharyati, N. (2022). Analisis Komparatif Tingkat Akurasi Model Prediksi Kebangkrutan antara Model Altman , Zmijewski , Springate dan Grover pada Perusahaan Delisting 2018 di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business, 6(2), 790–793. https://doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v6i2.691
Pakdaman, H. (2018). Investigating the Ability of Altman and Springate and Zmijewski and Grover Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Tehran Stock Exchange. Espacios, 39(14), 33–41. http://www.revistaespacios.com/a18v39n14/a18v39n14p33.pdf
Pardiastuti, N. K. K., & Herawati, N. T. (2020). Penilaian Kinerja Manajemen melalui Analisis Laporan Keuangan. Ekuitas: Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi, 8(2), 129–136. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.23887/ekuitas.v8i2.26885
Prasetianingtias, E., & Kusumowati, D. (2019). Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman, Grover, Zmijewski Dan Springate Sebagai Prediksi Financial Distress. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Perpajakan, 5(1), 1–14. http://jurnal.unmer.ac.id/index.php/ap
Prusak, B. (2018). Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries. International Journal of Financial Studies, 6(3), 60–88. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6030060
Puro, N., Borkowski, N., Hearld, L., Carroll, N., Byrd, J., Smith, D., & Ghiasi, A. (2019). Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction: A Comparison of Three Financial Distress Prediction Models in Acute Care Hospitals. Journal of Health Care Finance, 1–15. www.HealthFinanceJournal.com
Saputra, I., Hermanto, W. C., Azmi, Z., & Akhmad, I. (2021). Bankruptcy Analysis using Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski, Foster, and Grover at Bank Mandiri Tbk. Research in Accounting Journal, 1(3), 431–439. https://journal.yrpipku.com/index.php/raj/article/view/312/224
Sawitri, N. N. (2019). FDPM after the global price crisis in the coal industry. International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, 12(1), 59–74. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJMEF.2019.098699
Schönfeld, J., Kuděj, M., & Smrčka, L. (2018). Financial Health of Enterprises Introducing Safeguard Procedure Based on Bankruptcy Models. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 19(5), 692–705. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2018.7063
Shkolnyk, I., Pisula, T., Loboda, L., & Nebaba, N. (2019). Financial Crisis of Real Sector Enterprises : An Integral Assessment. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 16(4), 366–381. https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.16(4).2019.31
Sindonews. (2020, December 10). Menteri Suharso Sebut Pandemi Bikin Bisnis Global Tertekan dan Ciptakan Kemiskinan. Sindonews.Com. https://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/263016/33/menteri-suharso-sebut-pandemi-bikin-bisnis-global-tertekan-dan-ciptakan-kemiskinan-1607566331
Siwu, M. H., & Tirayoh, V. Z. (2022). Analisis Perbandingan Profitabilitas Sebelum Pandemi dan Pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19 Pada Sektor Consumer Cyclicals yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (2018-2021). Jurnal Riset Akuntansi, 17(3), 142–149.
Stefko, R., Jencova, S., Vasanicova, P., & Litavcova, E. (2019). An evaluation of financial health in the electrical engineering industry. Journal of Competitiveness, 11(4), 144–160. https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2019.04.10
Supitriyani, Astuti, & Azwar, K. (2022). Implementation of Springate, Altman, Grover and Zmijewski Models in Measuring Financial Distress. International Journal of Trends in Accounting Research, 3(1), 1–8. http://jurnal.adai.or.id/index.php/ijtar/article/view/169
Tanjung, G., Saudi, M. H. M., & Sinaga, O. (2019). Predicting Financial Distress : A Case Study of Indonesia Coal Firms. Journal of Advanced Research in Dynamical and Control Systems, 11(03), 391–398. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334822335%0APredicting
Thomas, G. N., & Indriaty, L. (2020). Analysis of Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Determining Bankruptcy of Consumer Goods Companies in Indonesia. International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, 24(6), 14387–14391. https://doi.org/10.37200/IJPR/V24I6/PR261379
Vavrek, R., Vozarova, I. K., & Kotulic, R. (2021). Evaluating the Financial Health of Agricultural Enterprises in the Conditions of the Slovak Republic Using Bankruptcy Models. Agriculture, 11(3), 242–260. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11030242
Widuri, T. (2018). Analisa Komparatif Prediksi Financial Distress Dengan Metode Altman Z-Score Dan Grover O-Score Pada PT. Bank Panin Syariah. JMK (Jurnal Manajemen Dan Kewirausahaan), 3(September), 166–174. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.32503/jmk.v3i3.369
Zmijewski, M. E. (1984). Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models. Journal of Accounting Research, 22, 59–82. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/2490859
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and The Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589–609. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978933
Dewi, I. A. P., & Ramantha, I. W. (2019). Prediksi Kebangkrutan Menggunakan Model Grover, Zmijewski, & Altman Pada LPD di Kabupaten Gianyar Tahun 2013-2017. E-Jurnal Akuntansi, 29(3), 1041–1054. https://doi.org/10.24843/eja.2019.v29.i03.p10
Donaldson, L., & Davis, J. H. (1991). Stewardship Theory or Agency Theory: CEO Governance and Shareholder Returns. Australian Journal of Management, 16(1), 49–64. https://doi.org/10.1177/031289629101600103
Edi, & Tania, M. (2018). Ketepatan Model Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, dan Grover dalam Memprediksi Financial Distress. Jurnal Reviu Akuntansi Dan Keuangan, 8(1), 79–91. https://doi.org/10.22219/jrak.v8i1.28
Fauzi, S. E., Sudjono, & Saluy, A. B. (2021). Comparative Analysis of Financial Sustainability Using the Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski and Grover Models for Companies Listed at Indonesia Stock Exchannge Sub-Sector Telecommunication Period 2014-2019. Journal of Economics and Business, 4(1), 57–78. https://doi.org/10.31014/aior.1992.04.01.321
Hartono. (2019). Predicting Financial Distress Using Altman Score, Grover Score, Springate Score, Zmijewski Score (Case Study on Consumer Goods Company). Journal Accounting, Financial, Auditing and Taxation, 08(01), 1–16. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.32400/ja.23354.8.1.2019.1-16
Hosaka, T. (2018). Bankruptcy Prediction Using Imaged Financial Ratios and Convolutional Neural Networks. Expert Systems With Applications, 117, 287–299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2018.09.039
Ilmiyono, A. F., Octavianty, E., Adriansyah, M., & Bon, A. T. (2021). Analysis to assessment potential bankruptcy of the company in state owned enterprises agriculture sector. Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, 7(11), 4269–4280.
Iswahyudi, M. (2022). Zmijewski, Taffler, Springate dan Grover Model : Analisis Model Prediksi Kebangkrutan. EKUITAS : Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi, 10(1), 129–137. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.23887/ekuitas.v10i1.46831
Khotmi, H. (2020). Analisis Perbandingan Prediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan dengan Model Altman Z-Score, Springate, dan Grover. Valid Jurnal Ilmiah, 17(2), 162–173. http://journal.stieamm.ac.id/index.php/valid/article/view/150/116
Kou, G., Xu, Y., Peng, Y., Shen, F., Chen, Y., Chang, K., & Kou, S. (2020). Bankruptcy Prediction for SMEs UsingTransactional Data and Two-Stage MultiobjectiveFeature Selection. Decision Support Systems, 140, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2020.113429
Lestari, R. M. E., Situmorang, M., & Pratama, M. I. P. (2021). Financial Distress Analysis using Altman (Z-score), Springate (S-Score), Zmijewski (X-Score), and Grover (G-Score) Models in the Tourism, Hospitality and Restaurant Subsectors Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange Period 2015-2019. Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, 7(11), 4249–4259. http://www.ieomsociety.org/singapore2021/papers/755.pdf
Matejić, T., Knežević, S., Arsić, V. B., Obradović, T., Milojević, S., Adamović, M., Mitrović, A., Milašinović, M., Simonović, D., Milošević, G., & Špiler, M. (2022). Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Hotel Industry Bankruptcy Risk through Novel Forecasting Models. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(8), 1–44. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14084680
Nur, D. A. R., Ismadharliani, A., & Sudharyati, N. (2022). Analisis Komparatif Tingkat Akurasi Model Prediksi Kebangkrutan antara Model Altman , Zmijewski , Springate dan Grover pada Perusahaan Delisting 2018 di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business, 6(2), 790–793. https://doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v6i2.691
Pakdaman, H. (2018). Investigating the Ability of Altman and Springate and Zmijewski and Grover Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Tehran Stock Exchange. Espacios, 39(14), 33–41. http://www.revistaespacios.com/a18v39n14/a18v39n14p33.pdf
Pardiastuti, N. K. K., & Herawati, N. T. (2020). Penilaian Kinerja Manajemen melalui Analisis Laporan Keuangan. Ekuitas: Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi, 8(2), 129–136. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.23887/ekuitas.v8i2.26885
Prasetianingtias, E., & Kusumowati, D. (2019). Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman, Grover, Zmijewski Dan Springate Sebagai Prediksi Financial Distress. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Perpajakan, 5(1), 1–14. http://jurnal.unmer.ac.id/index.php/ap
Prusak, B. (2018). Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries. International Journal of Financial Studies, 6(3), 60–88. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6030060
Puro, N., Borkowski, N., Hearld, L., Carroll, N., Byrd, J., Smith, D., & Ghiasi, A. (2019). Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction: A Comparison of Three Financial Distress Prediction Models in Acute Care Hospitals. Journal of Health Care Finance, 1–15. www.HealthFinanceJournal.com
Saputra, I., Hermanto, W. C., Azmi, Z., & Akhmad, I. (2021). Bankruptcy Analysis using Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski, Foster, and Grover at Bank Mandiri Tbk. Research in Accounting Journal, 1(3), 431–439. https://journal.yrpipku.com/index.php/raj/article/view/312/224
Sawitri, N. N. (2019). FDPM after the global price crisis in the coal industry. International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, 12(1), 59–74. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJMEF.2019.098699
Schönfeld, J., Kuděj, M., & Smrčka, L. (2018). Financial Health of Enterprises Introducing Safeguard Procedure Based on Bankruptcy Models. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 19(5), 692–705. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2018.7063
Shkolnyk, I., Pisula, T., Loboda, L., & Nebaba, N. (2019). Financial Crisis of Real Sector Enterprises : An Integral Assessment. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 16(4), 366–381. https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.16(4).2019.31
Sindonews. (2020, December 10). Menteri Suharso Sebut Pandemi Bikin Bisnis Global Tertekan dan Ciptakan Kemiskinan. Sindonews.Com. https://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/263016/33/menteri-suharso-sebut-pandemi-bikin-bisnis-global-tertekan-dan-ciptakan-kemiskinan-1607566331
Siwu, M. H., & Tirayoh, V. Z. (2022). Analisis Perbandingan Profitabilitas Sebelum Pandemi dan Pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19 Pada Sektor Consumer Cyclicals yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (2018-2021). Jurnal Riset Akuntansi, 17(3), 142–149.
Stefko, R., Jencova, S., Vasanicova, P., & Litavcova, E. (2019). An evaluation of financial health in the electrical engineering industry. Journal of Competitiveness, 11(4), 144–160. https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2019.04.10
Supitriyani, Astuti, & Azwar, K. (2022). Implementation of Springate, Altman, Grover and Zmijewski Models in Measuring Financial Distress. International Journal of Trends in Accounting Research, 3(1), 1–8. http://jurnal.adai.or.id/index.php/ijtar/article/view/169
Tanjung, G., Saudi, M. H. M., & Sinaga, O. (2019). Predicting Financial Distress : A Case Study of Indonesia Coal Firms. Journal of Advanced Research in Dynamical and Control Systems, 11(03), 391–398. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334822335%0APredicting
Thomas, G. N., & Indriaty, L. (2020). Analysis of Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Determining Bankruptcy of Consumer Goods Companies in Indonesia. International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, 24(6), 14387–14391. https://doi.org/10.37200/IJPR/V24I6/PR261379
Vavrek, R., Vozarova, I. K., & Kotulic, R. (2021). Evaluating the Financial Health of Agricultural Enterprises in the Conditions of the Slovak Republic Using Bankruptcy Models. Agriculture, 11(3), 242–260. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11030242
Widuri, T. (2018). Analisa Komparatif Prediksi Financial Distress Dengan Metode Altman Z-Score Dan Grover O-Score Pada PT. Bank Panin Syariah. JMK (Jurnal Manajemen Dan Kewirausahaan), 3(September), 166–174. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.32503/jmk.v3i3.369
Zmijewski, M. E. (1984). Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models. Journal of Accounting Research, 22, 59–82. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/2490859
Published
2024-03-31
How to Cite
ARTINI, Ni Luh Putu Santi; ASTIKA, Ida Bagus Putra.
Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Menggunakan Model Altman, Springate, Grover, dan Zmijewski pada Perusahaan Sektor Consumer Cyclicals.
E-Jurnal Akuntansi, [S.l.], v. 34, n. 3, p. 659-673, mar. 2024.
ISSN 2302-8556.
Available at: <https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/akuntansi/article/view/102842>. Date accessed: 19 nov. 2024.
doi: https://doi.org/10.24843/EJA.2024.v34.i03.p08.
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