PERBANDINGAN METODE SEASONAL ARIMA DAN METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DALAM MERAMALKAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA KE BALI

NI PUTU AYU DEWI CAHYANTARI; I WAYAN SUMARJAYA; I NYOMAN WIDANA

doi:10.24843/MTK.2021.v10.i02.p321

PERBANDINGAN METODE SEASONAL ARIMA DAN METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DALAM MERAMALKAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA KE BALI

NI PUTU AYU DEWI CAHYANTARI Universitas Udayana
I WAYAN SUMARJAYA Universitas Udayana http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7213-8170
I NYOMAN WIDANA Universitas Udayana

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24843/MTK.2021.v10.i02.p321

Abstract

Tourism is one of the main sectors in increasing a country's economy. For this reason, an estimate of tourist visits to Bali is needed so that it can be used as a benchmark for development and development in the tourism sector. Forecasting the number of foreign tourists coming to Bali using the Seasonal ARIMA method produces an MSE value of 1,250,276,526. While the Winter's Exponential Smoothing method obtained 1,291,150,258. The results of the forecast for the number of foreign tourists coming to Bali in 2020 using the SARIMA method are 588,980, 653,740, 659,817 (January-March 2020).

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Author Biographies

NI PUTU AYU DEWI CAHYANTARI, Universitas Udayana

Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas MIPA – Universitas Udayana

I WAYAN SUMARJAYA, Universitas Udayana

Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas MIPA – Universitas Udayana

I NYOMAN WIDANA, Universitas Udayana

Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas MIPA – Universitas Udayana

Published

2021-05-24

How to Cite

CAHYANTARI, NI PUTU AYU DEWI; SUMARJAYA, I WAYAN; WIDANA, I NYOMAN. PERBANDINGAN METODE SEASONAL ARIMA DAN METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DALAM MERAMALKAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA KE BALI. E-Jurnal Matematika, [S.l.], v. 10, n. 2, p. 59-64, may 2021. ISSN 2303-1751. Available at: <https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/mtk/article/view/73241>. Date accessed: 19 nov. 2024. doi: https://doi.org/10.24843/MTK.2021.v10.i02.p321.

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