PERBANDINGAN PERAMALAN HASIL PRODUKSI IKAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE PERMULUSAN EKSPONENSIAL HOLT-WINTERS DAN ARIMA

Abstract

Every year fish consumption in Indonesia always increases. Basis landing of fish (PPI) Kedonganan is one of the ports where the ships docked and take part in economic activities of fisheries in Bali. The aim of this study is to forecast the amount of fish production so that the fish production can be managed. Some methods that can handle seasonal factors in time series forecasting include Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and ARIMA. The results show that ARIMA(2,0,4)×(3,1,2)12 yields RMSE is 89,358 and MAPE is 0.81% whereas the value of fish outcomes prediction using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method yields RMSE is 119,158 and MAPE is 1.14%.

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Author Biographies

DIAN RAHMAN, Udayana University

Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas MIPA – Universitas Udayana

I WAYAN SUMARJAYA, Udayana University

Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas MIPA – Universitas Udayana

I KOMANG GDE SUKARSA, Udayana University

Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas MIPA – Universitas Udayana

Published
2018-12-01
How to Cite
RAHMAN, DIAN; SUMARJAYA, I WAYAN; SUKARSA, I KOMANG GDE. PERBANDINGAN PERAMALAN HASIL PRODUKSI IKAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE PERMULUSAN EKSPONENSIAL HOLT-WINTERS DAN ARIMA. E-Jurnal Matematika, [S.l.], v. 7, n. 4, p. 371-376, dec. 2018. ISSN 2303-1751. Available at: <https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/mtk/article/view/44230>. Date accessed: 04 nov. 2024. doi: https://doi.org/10.24843/MTK.2018.v07.i04.p227.
Section
Articles

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