Analisis Penyebaran Covid 19 Menggunakan Model SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) Di Provinsi Bali

I Gusti Ngurah Gede Agung Suniantara; Nyoman Gunantara; Made Sudarma

doi:10.24843/MITE.2023.v22i01.P05

I Gusti Ngurah Gede Agung Suniantara Universitas Udayana
Nyoman Gunantara Universitas Udayana
Made Sudarma Universitas Udayana

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24843/MITE.2023.v22i01.P05

Abstract

The Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic was announced by World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. World Health Organization explained that Coronavirus is a virus that can cause disease in animals and humans. The spread of the Covid-19 virus has spread to Indonesia and has spread to all provinces. The spread of COVID-19 can be modeled mathematically using the SIR model. The SIR model is divided into three compartments, namely susceptible individuals, infected individuals, and recovered individuals. SIR estimates can be checked for error rates using the MAPE method. The results of the SIR estimation in Bali Province obtained are that the Covid19 pandemic will end on August 09, 2024, the SIR model applied produces an error rate of 49%, the error rate is quite good because the MAPE value is between 20% and 50%.

Key Words— COVID-19; SIR; MAPE.

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Author Biography

Made Sudarma, Universitas Udayana

[1] N. K. E. Sutrisni, “Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Bisnis Penjualan Berbasis Online Di Bali,” J. Ilm. Akunt. dan Bisnis, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 102–109, 2020, [Online]. Available: file:///D:/2826-Article Text-6469-1-10-20210115 (1).pdf.

[2] H. Atzzahra, I. Fitria, and N. Millah, “Analisis Sensitivitas pada Model SIR Penyebaran COVID-19,” MUST J. Math. Educ. Sci. Technol., vol. 6, no. 2, p. 217, 2021, doi: 10.30651/must.v6i2.9666.

[3] M. Fajar, “Estimation of COVID-19 reproductive number case of Indonesia ( estimasi angka reproduksi novel coronavirus ( COVID-19 ),” ResearchGate, no. March, pp. 1–7, 2020, doi: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32287.92328.

[4] Sifriyani and D. Rosadi, “Pemodelan Susceptible Infected Recovered ( Sir ) Untuk Estimasi Angka Reproduksi Covid-19 Di Kalimantan Timur Dan Samarinda,” J. Media Stat., no. July, pp. 1–13, 2020.

[5] S. P. Sari and E. Arfi, “Analisis Dinamik Model SIR Pada Kasus Penyebaran Penyakit Corona Virus Disease-19 (COVID-19),” Indones. J. Appl. Math., vol. 1, no. 2, p. 61, 2021, doi: 10.35472/indojam.v1i2.354.

[6] Y. Pramana, R. S. Hartati, and K. Oka Saputra, “Peramalan Penerbitan Ijin Mendirikan Bangunan Dengan Single Moving Average Dan Exponential Smoothing,” Maj. Ilm. Teknol. Elektro, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 241–248, 2019, doi: 10.24843/mite.2019.v18i02.p13.

[7] R. Haryman Pasaribu, Z. Idris Shaleh Harahap, B. Arga Putra, and S. Laila Angelia Siregar, “Aplikasi Pemodelan Matematika dalam Memodelkan Penyebaran Virus Covid-19 di Indonesia,” Semin. Nas. Mat. dan Pendidik. Mat., no. 5, 2020.

[8] B. A. Wahyudi and I. Palupi, “Prediction of the peak Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia using SIR model,” J. Teknol. dan Sist. Komput., vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 49–55, 2021, doi: 10.14710/jtsiskom.2020.13877.

[9] J. Felix, N. Santoso, A. Setiawan, S. Rostianingsih, and J. S. Surabaya, “Perbandingan dan Analisis Metode Artificial Neural Network dan SIRD pada Kasus Covid-19 di Surabaya,” 2020.

[10] R. Teguh, A. S. Sahay, and F. F. Adji, “Pemodelan Penyebaran Infeksi Covid-19 Di Kalimantan, 2020,” J. Teknol. Inf. J. Keilmuan dan Apl. Bid. Tek. Inform., vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 171–178, 2020, doi: 10.47111/jti.v14i2.1229.

[11] D. Diamtoro, T. W., Widjajanti, T. W., & Matualage, “MODEL SIR (SUSCEPTIBLE, INFECTED, REMOVED) PENYEBARAN COVID-19 DI PROVINSI PAPUA BARAT,” J. Nat., vol. 17(2), pp. 64–71, 2021.

[12] Saputra, “Rancang Bangun Aplikasi Peramalan Persediaan Stok Barang Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average (Wma) Pada Toko Barang Xyz,” J. Tek. Inform. Vol. 13, No. 3, Agustus 2021, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 1–9, 2021.

[13] I. D. N. A. Manuaba, I. B. G. Manuaba, and M. Sudarma, “Komparasi Metode Peramalan Grey dan Grey-Markov untuk mengetahui Peramalan PNBP di Universitas Udayana,” Maj. Ilm. Teknol. Elektro, vol. 21, no. 1, p. 83, 2022, doi: 10.24843/mite.2022.v21i01.p12.

[14] N. H. Pajriati, E. Kurniati, and D. Suhaedi, “Penerapan Metode Average Based Fuzzy Time Series Lee Untuk Peramalan Harga Emas Di PT. X,” J. Ris. Mat., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 73–81, 2021, doi: 10.29313/jrm.v1i1.221.

[15] A. Lusiana and P. Yuliarty, “PENERAPAN METODE PERAMALAN (FORECASTING) PADA PERMINTAAN ATAP di PT X,” Ind. Inov. J. Tek. Ind., vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 11–20, 2020, doi: 10.36040/industri.v10i1.2530.

[16] Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Bali (Statistics of Bali Province), “Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Bali,” Badan Pusat Statistik, 2022. https://bali.bps.go.id/indicator/12/184/1/proyeksi-penduduk-provinsi-bali-menurut-kelompok-umur.html (accessed Sep. 02, 2022).

[17] A. Bastian, D. S. Heriyana, and S. F. Rodiansyah, “Perbandingan Model SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered), Exponential Moving Aaverage dan Single Exponential Smoothing pada Peramalan Covid-19,” Infotech J., vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 75–82, 2021.

[18] COVID-19 Handling Task Force, “Peta Sebaran,” https://covid19.go.id/peta-sebaran, 2022. https://covid19.go.id/peta-sebaran (accessed Aug. 10, 2022).

[19] G. Fensynthia, “Kriteria Sembuh Covid-19, Berapa Lama Waktunya?,” Primaya Hospital, 2021. https://primayahospital.com/covid-19/kriteria-sembuh-covid-19/ (accessed Feb. 01, 2023).

[20] Z. Zuhri and A. Simanjuntak, “ANALISIS LAJU PENYEBARAN COVID-19 MENGGUNAKAN MODEL MATEMATIKA EPIDEMIOLOGI SIR DAN RUNGE-,” vol. 03, no. 01, pp. 98–110, 2022.

References

[1] N. K. E. Sutrisni, “Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Bisnis Penjualan Berbasis Online Di Bali,” J. Ilm. Akunt. dan Bisnis, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 102–109, 2020, [Online]. Available: file:///D:/2826-Article Text-6469-1-10-20210115 (1).pdf.
[2] H. Atzzahra, I. Fitria, and N. Millah, “Analisis Sensitivitas pada Model SIR Penyebaran COVID-19,” MUST J. Math. Educ. Sci. Technol., vol. 6, no. 2, p. 217, 2021, doi: 10.30651/must.v6i2.9666.
[3] M. Fajar, “Estimation of COVID-19 reproductive number case of Indonesia ( estimasi angka reproduksi novel coronavirus ( COVID-19 ),” ResearchGate, no. March, pp. 1–7, 2020, doi: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32287.92328.
[4] Sifriyani and D. Rosadi, “Pemodelan Susceptible Infected Recovered ( Sir ) Untuk Estimasi Angka Reproduksi Covid-19 Di Kalimantan Timur Dan Samarinda,” J. Media Stat., no. July, pp. 1–13, 2020.
[5] S. P. Sari and E. Arfi, “Analisis Dinamik Model SIR Pada Kasus Penyebaran Penyakit Corona Virus Disease-19 (COVID-19),” Indones. J. Appl. Math., vol. 1, no. 2, p. 61, 2021, doi: 10.35472/indojam.v1i2.354.
[6] Y. Pramana, R. S. Hartati, and K. Oka Saputra, “Peramalan Penerbitan Ijin Mendirikan Bangunan Dengan Single Moving Average Dan Exponential Smoothing,” Maj. Ilm. Teknol. Elektro, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 241–248, 2019, doi: 10.24843/mite.2019.v18i02.p13.
[7] R. Haryman Pasaribu, Z. Idris Shaleh Harahap, B. Arga Putra, and S. Laila Angelia Siregar, “Aplikasi Pemodelan Matematika dalam Memodelkan Penyebaran Virus Covid-19 di Indonesia,” Semin. Nas. Mat. dan Pendidik. Mat., no. 5, 2020.
[8] B. A. Wahyudi and I. Palupi, “Prediction of the peak Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia using SIR model,” J. Teknol. dan Sist. Komput., vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 49–55, 2021, doi: 10.14710/jtsiskom.2020.13877.
[9] J. Felix, N. Santoso, A. Setiawan, S. Rostianingsih, and J. S. Surabaya, “Perbandingan dan Analisis Metode Artificial Neural Network dan SIRD pada Kasus Covid-19 di Surabaya,” 2020.
[10] R. Teguh, A. S. Sahay, and F. F. Adji, “Pemodelan Penyebaran Infeksi Covid-19 Di Kalimantan, 2020,” J. Teknol. Inf. J. Keilmuan dan Apl. Bid. Tek. Inform., vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 171–178, 2020, doi: 10.47111/jti.v14i2.1229.
[11] D. Diamtoro, T. W., Widjajanti, T. W., & Matualage, “MODEL SIR (SUSCEPTIBLE, INFECTED, REMOVED) PENYEBARAN COVID-19 DI PROVINSI PAPUA BARAT,” J. Nat., vol. 17(2), pp. 64–71, 2021.
[12] Saputra, “Rancang Bangun Aplikasi Peramalan Persediaan Stok Barang Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average (Wma) Pada Toko Barang Xyz,” J. Tek. Inform. Vol. 13, No. 3, Agustus 2021, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 1–9, 2021.
[13] I. D. N. A. Manuaba, I. B. G. Manuaba, and M. Sudarma, “Komparasi Metode Peramalan Grey dan Grey-Markov untuk mengetahui Peramalan PNBP di Universitas Udayana,” Maj. Ilm. Teknol. Elektro, vol. 21, no. 1, p. 83, 2022, doi: 10.24843/mite.2022.v21i01.p12.
[14] N. H. Pajriati, E. Kurniati, and D. Suhaedi, “Penerapan Metode Average Based Fuzzy Time Series Lee Untuk Peramalan Harga Emas Di PT. X,” J. Ris. Mat., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 73–81, 2021, doi: 10.29313/jrm.v1i1.221.
[15] A. Lusiana and P. Yuliarty, “PENERAPAN METODE PERAMALAN (FORECASTING) PADA PERMINTAAN ATAP di PT X,” Ind. Inov. J. Tek. Ind., vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 11–20, 2020, doi: 10.36040/industri.v10i1.2530.
[16] Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Bali (Statistics of Bali Province), “Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Bali,” Badan Pusat Statistik, 2022. https://bali.bps.go.id/indicator/12/184/1/proyeksi-penduduk-provinsi-bali-menurut-kelompok-umur.html (accessed Sep. 02, 2022).
[17] A. Bastian, D. S. Heriyana, and S. F. Rodiansyah, “Perbandingan Model SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered), Exponential Moving Aaverage dan Single Exponential Smoothing pada Peramalan Covid-19,” Infotech J., vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 75–82, 2021.
[18] COVID-19 Handling Task Force, “Peta Sebaran,” https://covid19.go.id/peta-sebaran, 2022. https://covid19.go.id/peta-sebaran (accessed Aug. 10, 2022).
[19] G. Fensynthia, “Kriteria Sembuh Covid-19, Berapa Lama Waktunya?,” Primaya Hospital, 2021. https://primayahospital.com/covid-19/kriteria-sembuh-covid-19/ (accessed Feb. 01, 2023).
[20] Z. Zuhri and A. Simanjuntak, “ANALISIS LAJU PENYEBARAN COVID-19 MENGGUNAKAN MODEL MATEMATIKA EPIDEMIOLOGI SIR DAN RUNGE-,” vol. 03, no. 01, pp. 98–110, 2022.

Analisis Penyebaran Covid 19 Menggunakan Model SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) Di Provinsi Bali

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