External Debt Sustainability in Selected ASEAN Countries: Do Macroeconomic Data and Institutions Matter?

  • malik cahyadin


Studi ini akan mengukur indikator hutang luar negeri yang berkelanjutan di tujuh negara ASEAN selama 1996-2017 menggunakan indicator-based model. Uji kointegrasi panel diterapkan untuk mengestimasi dampak indikator makroekonomi dan kelembagaan terhadap hutang luar negeri yang berkelanjutan. Terdapat dua indikator hutang luar negeri yang berkelanjutan, yaitu: (a) EDS1 – yang menunjukkan tingkat pertumbuhan hutang luar negeri lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan GDP, dan (b) EDS2 – yang menunjukkan pertumbuahn GDP lebih besar dibandingkan dengan tingkat bunga riil. Temuan-temuan studi menunjukkan bahwa indikator makroekonomi dan beberapa indikator kelembagaan berdampak signifikan terhadap EDS1 sedangkan makroekonomi indikator – seperti pertumbuhan GDP, inflasi dan FDI inflows – dan satu indikator kelembagaan – seperti efektivitas pemerintah – berdampak signifikan terhadap EDS2 dalam jangka pendek. Speed of adjustment berdampak signifikan terhadap hutang luar negeri yang berkelanjutan dalam jangka pendek. Lebih lanjut, kointegrasi panel menjelaskan bahwa dalam jangka panjang indikator makroekonomi (kecuali nilai tukar) dan kelembagaan berdampak signifikan terhadap hutang luar negeri yang berkelanjutan. Hasil studi berkontribusi terhadap kebijakan pemerintah seperti kebijakan pengelolaan hutang luar negeri, pro-pertumbuhan, pro-investasi, stabilitas harga dan peningkatan kualitas kelembagaan baik pada tingkat sebuah negara dan tingkat ASEAN.


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How to Cite
CAHYADIN, malik. External Debt Sustainability in Selected ASEAN Countries: Do Macroeconomic Data and Institutions Matter?. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, [S.l.], p. 37-58, feb. 2021. ISSN 2303-0186. Available at: <https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/jekt/article/view/69318>. Date accessed: 08 june 2023. doi: https://doi.org/10.24843/JEKT.2021.v14.i01.p03.