Peramalan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Provinsi Bali Triwulanan (Q-to-Q) Tahun Dasar 2010 dengan Model Arima

  • Briliana Wellyanti

Abstract

Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDRP) is one indikator of the progress of an area / region. Economic growth is a comparison of the GDRP in the current period against the previous period. In the planning area (RPJMD), local governments need economic growth forecast in the next 5 years. In this case the GDRP forecast may be obtained by various methods, one of the methods that will be addressed in this study is the GDRP forecast Bali using ARIMA.


Bali’s GDRP on First Quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2016 is obtained from Statistik Bali. The analytical method used is the analysis of time series data that ARIMA models. The results showed that the ARIMA model is able to predict the GDP Bali until the fourth quarter 2018. The best ARIMA model is ARIMA (3,1,0).

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Andrei, Adriana. Econometric Modeliing of GDP Time Series. Theoretical and Applied Economics
Volume XVIII (2011), No. 10(563), pp. 91-98. E-journal. University of Bucharest

Bopulas, Brenda. 2011. Forecast Model of the Gross Domestic Product: an application of box-jenkins methodology. Universiti Malaysia Sarawak.

BPS Provinsi Bali. 2015. Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Provinsi Bali, Tahun 2011 – 2015.

Dritsaki, Chaido. 2015. Forecasting Real GDP Rate through Econometric Models: An Empirical Study from Greece. Journal of International Business and Economics June 2015, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 13-19. E-journal. American Research Institute for Policy Development

Maity, Bipasha. 2012. Forecasting GDP Growth Rates of India: An Empirical Study. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences Vol. 1, No.9, 2012, pp 52 -58. E-journal. Indian Institute of Technology.

Rahardja, Pratama dan Mandala Manurung, 2001. Teori Ekonomi Makro: Suatu Pengantar. Jakarta: LP FE Universitas Indonesia.

Sukirno, Sadono. 2006. Ekonomi Pembangunan. Jakarta : Kencana Group

Utama, Made Suyana. 2014. Model Box Jenkins Dalam Rangka Peramalan Produksi Domestik Regional Bruto Propinsi Bali. Jurnal Buletin Studi Ekonomi Vol 19, No. 1. E-journal. Universitas Udayana.

Widarjono, Agus. 2013. Ekonometrika: Pengantar dan Aplikasinya Disertai Panduan Eviews. Yogyakarta: UPP STIM YKPM
Published
2019-02-04
How to Cite
WELLYANTI, Briliana. Peramalan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Provinsi Bali Triwulanan (Q-to-Q) Tahun Dasar 2010 dengan Model Arima. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, [S.l.], p. 63-72, feb. 2019. ISSN 2303-0186. Available at: <https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/jekt/article/view/26033>. Date accessed: 30 sep. 2022. doi: https://doi.org/10.24843/JEKT.2019.v12.i01.p07.

Keywords

PDRB, Peramalan PDRB, ARIMA, Time series Analysis