Capital Market Reaction towards 2024-2029 Republic of Indonesia’s Presidential & Vice Presidential Inauguration
Abstract
This research was intended to examine the Indonesian financial market's response towards 2024 Presidential inauguration. Using a quantitative approach, the study employs an event study methodology with a 14-day observation period, comprising 7 days prior to and 7 days following the inauguration. It evaluates abnormal returns and trading volume activity during this timeframe. This research focuses on 45 corporations inside the LQ-45 index, with data taken from BEI website. Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used as Hypothesis test method with the results indicating no significant changes in abnormal returns pre- and post-event, but a significant negative change was observed in trading volume activity. This suggests a negative market reaction to the event, as evidenced by reduced trading activity after the inauguration.
Keywords: Presidential Inauguration; Stock Prices; Trading Volume Activity; Abnormal Return
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References
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Enry Juliawan, & Sapriyadi. (2024). Menakar Dampak Politik, dan Keamanan terhadap Investasi di Indonesia. Bulletin of Economic Studies (BEST), 4(1), 31–41. https://doi.org/10.24252/best.v4i1.47138
Ghozali, I. (2018). Aplikasi analisis multivariete SPSS 25. Semarang: Universitas Diponegoro.
Hartono, J. (2022). Teori portofolio dan analisis investasi.
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Layyinaturrobaniyah, & Christopher, D. (2019). Indonesian Capital Market Reactions for the Election of Donald Trump As United States President (Empirical Study on Multinational Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exhange). Journal of Management and Business, 18(1), 32–41. https://doi.org/10.24123/jmb.v18i1.365
Liogu, S. J., & Saerang, I. S. (2015). Reaksi pasar modal terhadap…. Jurnal EMBA, 3(1), 1274–1282.
Liu, Y., Shu, H., & Wei, K. C. J. (2019). Political uncertainty and stock market volatility: Evidence from the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Journal of Financial Markets, 45, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finmar.2019.03.002
Listyaningsih, E., Sariningsih, E., & Mudrikah, R. (2020). Stock Market Reaction to Indonesia Presidential and Legislative Election. Binus Business Review, 11(2), 91–96. https://doi.org/10.21512/bbr.v11i2.6302
Ma, Y., Wei, Q., & Gao, X. (2024). The Impact of Political Risks on Financial Markets: Evidence from a Stock Price Crash Perspective. International Journal of Financial Studies, 12(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12020051
Manurung, H. (2019). PENGARUH PEMILU SERENTAK TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM DI INDONESIA (Studi Kasus Saham LQ-45 di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Pengaruh Pemilihan Serentak Terhadap Return Saham Di Indonesia, 3(1), 1–17. Retrieved from www.journal.uta45jakarta.ac.id
Pratama, D., Damayanthi, E., Dharmadiaksa, B., & Suardana, A. (2020). Capital Market Reaction to the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election Announcement Results by the General Election Commission and Constitutional Court Decision. American Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research (AJHSSR), 4(1), 286–291. Retrieved from www.ajhssr.com
Pratama, M. R., Handarini, D., & Zairin, G. M. (2024). Analisis Reaksi Pasar Modal Terhadap Pemilu Presiden Indonesia Tahun 2024. Jurnal Akuntansi, Perpajakan Dan Auditing, 5(2), 283–302. https://doi.org/10.21009/japa.0502.04
Puspa Permata Rita Hartati, C. (2022). Abnormal Return Saham Terhadap Peristiwa Politik Di Indonesia. Jurnal Trial Balance VOLUME, 1(1), 1–17.
Puspita, A., & Damayanti, D. (2023). REAKSI PASAR MODAL TERHADAP PEMILIHAN UMUM SERENTAK TANGGAL 17 APRIL 2019 DI INDONESIA (Studi Kasus Perusahaan Property dan Real Estate yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Jurnal Ilmiah Fokus Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis & Akuntansi (EMBA), 1(3), 356–362. https://doi.org/10.34152/emba.v1i3.637
Rismala, R., & Elwisam, E. (2020). Pengaruh Inflasi, Bi Rate, Kurs Rupiah, Dan Harga Emas Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Sektor Pertambangan Di Indonesia. Oikonomia: Jurnal Manajemen, 15(2), 80–97. https://doi.org/10.47313/oikonomia.v15i2.753
Rosdiana, R. (2020). The Influence of a Political Event on Property Sector Stocks in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 17(1 SE-Original Research Article), 32–45. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajeba/2020/v17i130252
Salsabillah, V. A., Mardani, R. M., & Bastomi, M. (2023). Pengaruh foreign direct investment, inflasi, stabilitas politik terhadap neraca dagang di Indonesia tahun 2019–2023. e-Jurnal Riset Manajemen, Prodi Manajemen Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Unisma. http://riset.unisma.ac.id/index.php/jrm.
Saragih, E. M., Sadalia, I., & Silalahi, A. S. (2019). The Impact of Presidential Election on Abnormal Return, Trading Volume Activity, Security Return Variability in Banking Industries Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. International Journal of Research and Review, 6(5), 246–261.
Senthilkumar, D. C., & Packiaraji, C. D. S. (2024). Fundamentals Of Financial Management. Fundamentals Of Financial Management. https://doi.org/10.59646/ffm/152
Sihotang, E. M., & Mekel, P. A. (2015). Reaksi Pasar Modal Terhadap Pemilihan Umum Presiden Tanggal 9 Juli 2014 di Indonesia. Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 3(1), 951–960. Retrieved from https://ejournal.unsrat.ac.id/index.php/emba/article/view/7800/7363
Spence, M. (1973). Job Market Signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355–374. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010
Stefhani, Y. (2020). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Peristiwa Politik. Jurnal Manajemen, 4(2), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.54964/manajemen.v4i2.129
Sudarmo, S., Fidiana, F., & Kurnia, K. (2024). Reaksi Investor Pada Peristiwa Pengumuman Kabinet Indonesia Maju. JAK (Jurnal Akuntansi) Kajian Ilmiah Akuntansi, 11(1), 62–76. https://doi.org/10.30656/jak.v11i1.6251
Sudarta. (2022). 済無No Title No Title No Title, 16(1), 1–23.
Sultonov, M. (2020). The impacts of international political and economic events on japanese financial markets. International Journal of Financial Studies, 8(3), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs8030043
Yuni Rohmawati. (2024). Jubir TPN Ganjar-Mahfud Ungkap PDIP Tengah Persiapkan Ini untuk Ajukan Hak Angket. Retrieved December 29, 2024, from https://www.tempo.co/politik/jubir-tpn-ganjar-mahfud-ungkap-pdip-tengah-persiapkan-ini-untuk-ajukan-hak-angket-84171
Akhadiyah, L., & Isbanah, Y. (2021). Analisis Komparatif Abnormal Return dan Trading Volume Activity Emiten Sektor Mining Berdasarkan Pengumuman Kasus Pasien Covid-19 Pertama di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 9(3), 979–989. https://doi.org/10.26740/jim.v9n3.p979-989
Aydogan, B., & Cagli, E. C. (2020). The impact of political events on stock market liquidity: Evidence from the 2018 Turkish general elections. Central Bank Review, 20(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.01.001
Boutchkova, M., Doshi, H., Durnev, A., & Molchanov, A. (2012). Precarious politics and return volatility. Review of Financial Studies, 25(4), 1111–1154. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhr100
Chandra Dwi. (2024). Dunia “Panas”! 50 Negara Serentak Gelar Pemilu di 2024: RI-AS. Retrieved December 29, 2024, from https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/research/20240101125324-128-501768/dunia-panas-50-negara-serentak-gelar-pemilu-di-2024-ri-as
Chavali, K., Alam, M., & Rosario, S. (2020). Stock market response to elections: An event study method. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(5), 9–18. https://doi.org/10.13106/JAFEB.2020.VOL7.NO5.009
Damayanti, A., Arifin, R., & Rahmawati. (2023). Vol. 12. No. 01 ISSN : 2302-7061. Riset, Jurnal Prodi, Manajemen Fakultas, Manajemen Unisma, Bisnis, 12(01), 510–518.
de Oliveira, F. N., & Sampaio, J. O. (2021). Political uncertainty and trading volume: Evidence from the 2018 Brazilian presidential elections. Emerging Markets Review, 47, 100781. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2021.100781
Eka Yudha Saputra. (2024). Pertemuan Prabowo-Megawati, Pengamat: Hal yang Luar Biasa Jika Terjadi. Retrieved December 29, 2024, from https://www.tempo.co/politik/pertemuan-prabowo-megawati-pengamat-hal-yang-luar-biasa-jika-terjadi-8974%0A
Enry Juliawan, & Sapriyadi. (2024). Menakar Dampak Politik, dan Keamanan terhadap Investasi di Indonesia. Bulletin of Economic Studies (BEST), 4(1), 31–41. https://doi.org/10.24252/best.v4i1.47138
Ghozali, I. (2018). Aplikasi analisis multivariete SPSS 25. Semarang: Universitas Diponegoro.
Hartono, J. (2022). Teori portofolio dan analisis investasi.
Hendrik Khoirul Muhid. (2024). Hasil Rekapitulasi Pilpres 2024 Diumumkan KPU, Apa Tanggapan Masing-masing Paslon? Retrieved December 29, 2024, from https://www.tempo.co/pemilu/hasil-rekapitulasi-pilpres-2024-diumumkan-kpu-apa-tanggapan-masing-masing-paslon--75274
Hendrik Yaputra. (2024). Berita Politik Sepekan: Prabowo Panggil Calon Menteri hingga soal Pertemuan dengan Megawati. Retrieved December 29, 2024, from https://www.tempo.co/politik/berita-politik-sepekan-prabowo-panggil-calon-menteri-hingga-soal-pertemuan-dengan-megawati-484222
Layyinaturrobaniyah, & Christopher, D. (2019). Indonesian Capital Market Reactions for the Election of Donald Trump As United States President (Empirical Study on Multinational Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exhange). Journal of Management and Business, 18(1), 32–41. https://doi.org/10.24123/jmb.v18i1.365
Liogu, S. J., & Saerang, I. S. (2015). Reaksi pasar modal terhadap…. Jurnal EMBA, 3(1), 1274–1282.
Liu, Y., Shu, H., & Wei, K. C. J. (2019). Political uncertainty and stock market volatility: Evidence from the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Journal of Financial Markets, 45, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finmar.2019.03.002
Listyaningsih, E., Sariningsih, E., & Mudrikah, R. (2020). Stock Market Reaction to Indonesia Presidential and Legislative Election. Binus Business Review, 11(2), 91–96. https://doi.org/10.21512/bbr.v11i2.6302
Ma, Y., Wei, Q., & Gao, X. (2024). The Impact of Political Risks on Financial Markets: Evidence from a Stock Price Crash Perspective. International Journal of Financial Studies, 12(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12020051
Manurung, H. (2019). PENGARUH PEMILU SERENTAK TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM DI INDONESIA (Studi Kasus Saham LQ-45 di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Pengaruh Pemilihan Serentak Terhadap Return Saham Di Indonesia, 3(1), 1–17. Retrieved from www.journal.uta45jakarta.ac.id
Pratama, D., Damayanthi, E., Dharmadiaksa, B., & Suardana, A. (2020). Capital Market Reaction to the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election Announcement Results by the General Election Commission and Constitutional Court Decision. American Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research (AJHSSR), 4(1), 286–291. Retrieved from www.ajhssr.com
Pratama, M. R., Handarini, D., & Zairin, G. M. (2024). Analisis Reaksi Pasar Modal Terhadap Pemilu Presiden Indonesia Tahun 2024. Jurnal Akuntansi, Perpajakan Dan Auditing, 5(2), 283–302. https://doi.org/10.21009/japa.0502.04
Puspa Permata Rita Hartati, C. (2022). Abnormal Return Saham Terhadap Peristiwa Politik Di Indonesia. Jurnal Trial Balance VOLUME, 1(1), 1–17.
Puspita, A., & Damayanti, D. (2023). REAKSI PASAR MODAL TERHADAP PEMILIHAN UMUM SERENTAK TANGGAL 17 APRIL 2019 DI INDONESIA (Studi Kasus Perusahaan Property dan Real Estate yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Jurnal Ilmiah Fokus Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis & Akuntansi (EMBA), 1(3), 356–362. https://doi.org/10.34152/emba.v1i3.637
Rismala, R., & Elwisam, E. (2020). Pengaruh Inflasi, Bi Rate, Kurs Rupiah, Dan Harga Emas Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Sektor Pertambangan Di Indonesia. Oikonomia: Jurnal Manajemen, 15(2), 80–97. https://doi.org/10.47313/oikonomia.v15i2.753
Rosdiana, R. (2020). The Influence of a Political Event on Property Sector Stocks in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 17(1 SE-Original Research Article), 32–45. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajeba/2020/v17i130252
Salsabillah, V. A., Mardani, R. M., & Bastomi, M. (2023). Pengaruh foreign direct investment, inflasi, stabilitas politik terhadap neraca dagang di Indonesia tahun 2019–2023. e-Jurnal Riset Manajemen, Prodi Manajemen Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Unisma. http://riset.unisma.ac.id/index.php/jrm.
Saragih, E. M., Sadalia, I., & Silalahi, A. S. (2019). The Impact of Presidential Election on Abnormal Return, Trading Volume Activity, Security Return Variability in Banking Industries Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. International Journal of Research and Review, 6(5), 246–261.
Senthilkumar, D. C., & Packiaraji, C. D. S. (2024). Fundamentals Of Financial Management. Fundamentals Of Financial Management. https://doi.org/10.59646/ffm/152
Sihotang, E. M., & Mekel, P. A. (2015). Reaksi Pasar Modal Terhadap Pemilihan Umum Presiden Tanggal 9 Juli 2014 di Indonesia. Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 3(1), 951–960. Retrieved from https://ejournal.unsrat.ac.id/index.php/emba/article/view/7800/7363
Spence, M. (1973). Job Market Signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355–374. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010
Stefhani, Y. (2020). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Peristiwa Politik. Jurnal Manajemen, 4(2), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.54964/manajemen.v4i2.129
Sudarmo, S., Fidiana, F., & Kurnia, K. (2024). Reaksi Investor Pada Peristiwa Pengumuman Kabinet Indonesia Maju. JAK (Jurnal Akuntansi) Kajian Ilmiah Akuntansi, 11(1), 62–76. https://doi.org/10.30656/jak.v11i1.6251
Sudarta. (2022). 済無No Title No Title No Title, 16(1), 1–23.
Sultonov, M. (2020). The impacts of international political and economic events on japanese financial markets. International Journal of Financial Studies, 8(3), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs8030043
Yuni Rohmawati. (2024). Jubir TPN Ganjar-Mahfud Ungkap PDIP Tengah Persiapkan Ini untuk Ajukan Hak Angket. Retrieved December 29, 2024, from https://www.tempo.co/politik/jubir-tpn-ganjar-mahfud-ungkap-pdip-tengah-persiapkan-ini-untuk-ajukan-hak-angket-84171
Published
2025-01-10
How to Cite
EFFENDY, Anderson Jonathan; SANTOSO, Tiara Rani; NAJMUDDIN, Ahmad Bebin.
Capital Market Reaction towards 2024-2029 Republic of Indonesia’s Presidential & Vice Presidential Inauguration.
E-Jurnal Akuntansi, [S.l.], v. 35, n. 4, jan. 2025.
ISSN 2302-8556.
Available at: <https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/akuntansi/article/view/122712>. Date accessed: 14 oct. 2025.
doi: https://doi.org/10.24843/EJA.2025.v35.i04.p06.
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