Prospective Analysis of The Coffee Agrotourism Business

analysis. The type of in is primary obtained from focus group discussions and interviews. The key element matrix analysis was performed with MICMAC (Matrix of Cross Impact Analysis) analysis. The results showed that Catur Village have the potential for agro-tourism development, but there are still some problems, such as lack of community knowledge and skills related to agro-tourism, inadequate marketing techniques, lack of vision and strategy, and lack of optimal institutions. The factors that influence the development of agro-tourism are and integration relations, facilities and infrastructure, institutions, and social society.


INTRODUCTION
Developing countries in many continents have developed the tourism sector as one of the country's foreign exchange because it has a significant impact on the economic progress of a country (Nyaupane et al., 2006;Okazaki, 2008;Kayat, 2010). The existence of tourism in an area can provide wider employment or business opportunities to local communities, increase community income, and promote local culture while generating foreign exchange. The rapid and unmanaged tourism progress will lead to the commercialization of culture, environmental damage, shifts in behavior, values, and norms and social institutions that arise in tourist destinations.
The development of Bali tourism is characterized by the percentage of tourists visiting Bali that continues to experience positive growth, namely 14.89% in 2014, in 2015 amounting to 6.24%, 23.14% in 2016, and in 2017 and 2018 respectively -each grew by 15.62% and 6.54% (data from Statistics Indonesia). Revenue in the tourism sector from the growth of tourist visits to Bali is not fully enjoyed by the local community. Foreign exchange in the tourism industry experienced a lot of leaks, due to spending on product purchases and international-standard operations. Indonesian tourism creates leaks between 50% to 80%. Economic leakage can also be likened to the occurrence of leakage of income from tourism activities which causes local people to be unable to enjoy it. Local community-based tourism (Community-based Tourism) is one strategy that can overcome the economic leakage of tourism (Yoga et al., 2017). (Inskepp, 1991) argues that sustainable tourism development emphasizes the community aspect (community-based tourism).
Agro-tourism is one form of Community-based Tourism (CBT) development in Bali. Agro-tourism is an activity carried out by farmers as a tourist attraction and involves residents in the planning and management of agro-tourism areas. Rural agrarian communities need to make maximum use of their natural and cultural resources for clear development (Adisa, 2013). According to Sastrayuda (2010) agrotourism is a business carried out by farmers who work in the agricultural sector for the pleasure and education of visitors. Agro-tourism can also present potential sources of income and increase community benefits. One of the principles of sustainable agro-tourism development is in the form of community participation in planning. Community participation becomes a very important thing in efforts to maintain the integrity of nature and as an alternative in responding to the demands and urgency of the development of sustainable tourism (Usman, 2010). One strategy to anticipate these leaks is by developing local community-based tourism. Local community empowerment is expected to be able to build an integration between policymakers, business people, and residents to manage their regions.
CBT development must get support and cooperation between stakeholders. These conditions are based on the limitations faced by local communities when carrying out tourism activities. These limitations include limited financial resources, infrastructure and knowledge, cultural limitations, and the potential for conflicts between public service institutions (Nyaupane et al., 2006). Community-based tourism provides direct economic benefits to families in the local community, improvement of the socio-economic community, environmental preservation, sustainable diversification of people's lifestyles (Manyara & Jones, 2007;Rastegar, 2010;Kibicho, 2008).
Agro-tourism is an agriculture-based business that is open to the public. Agro-tourism aims to offer something that is seen, directly involved in agricultural activities, and to enjoy agricultural products or gifts to buy. Agrotourism is an activity of various tourism activities developed in rural areas especially agricultural activities and adapted to agricultural lifestyles (Dritsaki, 2009).
Catur Village is one of the villages in Bangli Regency, Bali Province which has great potential for agro-tourism development. Being on the island of Bali which is a tourist destination does not necessarily make tourism there develop rapidly. The purpose of this study was to identify the problems faced in the context of developing agro-tourism in Catur Village. In addition, this study also analyzes strategic factors (influencing factors and dependence) in the development of agrotourism in Catur Village, Kintamani District, Bangli Regency. The use of prospective analysis in the development of rural agro-tourism is the novelty of this study.

RESEARCH METHODS
Based on this research objectives, this research can be categorized as an exploratory research that aims to explore the factors that play a role in the development of agro-tourism in Catur Village. The selection of this research location is based on considerations, namely: (1) Catur Village has the potential for agro-tourism in the form of coffee and orange plantations as one of the typical Balinese commodities; (2) Catur Village Area has the potential to be developed because it is close to the natural attractions of Mount and Lake Batur ; (3) The main livelihood of the community in Catur Village is in the field of plantations, so that it has the potential to empower the community through the development of coffee and citrus plantation agro-tourism.
The data in this study consisted of primary data obtained through Focus Group Discussion (FGD, which was conducted with experts in the fields of agriculture, culture, and socio-economics in Bali. The results of the FGD are used as the basis for conducting data analysis. The analysis in this study uses a prospective analysis technique-MICMAC (Matrix of Cross Impact Multiplications Applied to a Classification). MICMAC analysis is an analysis of a variable system based on direct classification, where the relationship between variables is identified and assessed by experts or stakeholders through FGD (Wijaya et al., 2020).
Fauzi, 2019 described that the MICMAC analysis consists of two stages: the first is the identification of key variables, both internal and external (accordance with the first research aim), and the relationship (influence and dependence) between variables (accordance with the first research aim). In MICMAC, the variables are grouped into four quadrants based on dependence and influence categories as shown in Figure 1.

RESULT AND DISCUSSION Tourism Potentials and Problems in the Framework for Agrotourism Business Development
Based on observations in Catur Village, related to the development of agrotourism, the potential of Catur Village agro-tourism according to 4A aspects (Attraction, Accessibility, Amenities, Ancillary) is presented in Table 2 below. Attraction -Kintamani Catur coffee products -Herbal Healing Oil -By-products from coffee (py products) -Nature tourism (tracking) -A blend of Balinese and Chinese culture -Pebini Temple -Citrus plantation -Gumitir flower farm 2.
Accessibility -The road to the Catur Tourism Village area 3.
Amenities -There is already a Padma Indah Lestari Ashram but it is still managed privately (specifically for meditation and only twice a year) 4.
Ancillary -Government support (Catur Village and Bangli Regency) -Private sector (support tour operator) -Non-profit sector (support from several academic institutions) -The formation of the local entrepreneur sector under the auspices of the tourism awareness group Source: (FGD, 2019) The existing tourism potential component in Catur Village has indeed fulfilled the 4A element, but it still needs to be developed. For example, related to the element of attraction, there are Segeha Waterfall and Trying Waterfall which the impression has not been touched, and the existence of the Chinese Graveyard complex which has not been exposed for pilgrimage or cultural tourism. Related to accessibility, it is necessary to develop access to waterfalls so that they can become tourist attractions that are accessed. Besides, it is necessary to develop the existence of lodging (homestay) toilets (rest area), and selfie spots as supporting facilities for tourism. Institutions that need to be developed are related to the management of tourism awareness groups, which so far only have core management, and do not yet have specific sections in the development of tourism support to run well.
Problems that can be identified in the development of agro-tourism in Catur Village include: 1) Lack of community knowledge about agro-tourism.
The people in Catur Village do not yet have a common understanding of agrotourism. Therefore, it is necessary to give an introduction to the basic theory to the people of Catur Village related to agro-tourism or ecotourism as a form of tourism following the tourism potential they have. 2) Lack of adequate tourism awareness institutions/groups.
As explained earlier, tourism-conscious groups have not been able to work maximally, because their organizations have not yet been formed with adequate structures. Therefore, it is necessary to have a meeting between village officials, stakeholders, and residents who will be the forerunner to the institutional development of tourism-aware groups.
3) The absence of a vision and strategy for developing tourism potential.
Vision and strategy are needed for the development of tourism potential in the Catur Village. So that it needs to be given consultation and assistance to help the community formulate a strategy through an introduction to the concept of vision and strategy. 4) The absence of adequate tourism marketing techniques.
Nowadays, tourism marketing techniques are needed visually. Therefore, Catur Village needs to be assisted in the making and introduction of tourism promotion designs. 5) Don't have sufficient skills.
Specific skills need to be possessed by the community to support agro-tourism. For example, foreign language skills for local tour guides, as well as culinary skills so that people can provide culinary for tourists. So that effort is needed through debriefing to the community through verbal training.

Factors That Play Role in the Development of Agro-tourism in Bali Province
The variables that are thought to have an important role in making this happen are identified in the following Table 3. The results of the MDI (Matrix of Direct Influence) table analysis, with MICMAC software produce a mapping of variables as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2 shows that the two variables, namely integration and institutional factors are in the quadrant influence variable or driver variable. While the social factors of the community are in the quadrant dependent variable. While environmental and cultural factors are in an autonomous position, facilities and infrastructure factors are in the variable relay position. Figure 2 also appears that the two variables (integration factor and institutional factors) are the two main factors that trigger the development of agro-tourism (input or driver variables), while community social factors become the affected variables from other variables. The facility and infrastructure factor is a relay variable which indicates that this variable is very sensitive and very unstable in achieving agro-tourism development because any intervention on this variable will have an impact on the overall system. Murphy (1985) developed the concept of community-based tourism (CBT), which pays attention to aspects of tourism by involving the participation of local communities. Tourism management planning and development must involve the community (Richards and Hall, 2000). There are three main reasons, namely: 1) Society as part of tourism products, 2) local people can easily adapt to changes in social culture, 3) tourism development helps open people's minds (López-Guzmán et al., 2011). Community-based tourism development (CBT) is widely developed in various developing countries, including: in Asia (Nyaupane et al., 2006;Okazaki, 2008;Kayat, 2010), Oceania (Dyer et al., 2003), in Brazil (Guerreiro Marcon, 2007, Ecuador (Ruiz Ballesteros et al., 2008), Mexico (Bringas R & Gonzales A., 2004) and Peru (Zorn & Farthing, 2007), Africa (Lepp, 2007;Manyara & Jones, 2007;Kibicho, 2008).

Figure 3: Relationship Between the Direct Effects of Sustainability Variables
Figure 4 below shows the relationship between indirect influence between variables. The numbers on each arrow in Figure 3 show the magnitude or degree of influence obtained through the iteration of the Boolean matrix.
In Figure 4, it can be seen that the very strong indirect effect occurs on the variable facility and infrastructure factors as well as institutional factors on the social factors variable (167 and 165 respectively). This shows the influence of facilities and infrastructure factors as well as institutional factors on other variables which then indirectly will have a big influence on the social factors of the community.
The relationship between agriculture and tourism is not a new phenomenon as a multifunctional and diversified parameter. (Busby & Rendle, 2000). Agrotourism has important micro and macroeconomic contributions, among others: as an additional source of income, creating employment, as a medium for promotion of local food products, a vehicle for education, promotion of entrepreneurship and industrialization, and a means of preserving cultural and rural heritage (Busby & Rendle, 2000;Sonnino, 2004;Nnadi & Akwiwu, 2005;McGehee, 2007). Agro-tourism in developing countries also faces obstacles such as underdeveloped agricultural distributors, political support from the government is still low, low community participation, and changes in community culture (Parra López & Calero García, 2006).  https://doi.org/10.24843/SOCA.2022.v16.i02.p08 221 The dotted line in Figure 5 below shows the change in the position of the variable from the initial position to the final position after accounting for indirect effects.

Figure 5: Inter-variable Displacement Map of Direct Inter-variable Influences from Direct to Indirect Influences
The shift of these variables still occurs in the same quadrant but changes in magnitude. For example, the variables of environmental and cultural factors that were originally only on positive dependence and influence (influence) zero, the final position changes to the position of positive influence and dependence. Likewise, the institutional factor variable which was originally only on positive influence and its dependence (zero), shifted sharply towards the axis of influence and also the axis of dependence.

CONCLUSION
Based on the results of research and discussion, the following conclusions can be concluded that Catur Village has potential attractions (accessibility), accessibility (accessibility), amenities (facilities), and ancillary (institutional), but still needs to be developed so that the potential for agro-tourism in the Catur Village is more optimal. The main problems related to the development of agro-tourism include the lack of community knowledge about agro-tourism, the absence of adequate tourism awareness institutions/groups, the lack of vision and strategies for developing tourism potential, the absence of adequate tourism marketing techniques, and the community's skills to provide tourism facilities also inadequate.
Factors that influence the development of agro-tourism in Catur Village, Kintamani Subdistrict are environment and culture, integration relations, facilities and infrastructure, institutions, and social society. The main factor that triggers the development of agro-tourism is the integration factor and institutional factors. The social factors of the community become the affected variable from other variables, while the facilities and infrastructure factors are relay variables.

RECOMMENDATION
This study uses a prospective analysis (MICMAC) to determine the key factors in the development of the coffee agro-tourism business, so that further development is needed to analyze the linkages between the actors involved in the development of the coffee agro-tourism business. In addition, it is also necessary to carry out further prospective analysis to formulate policies related to the development of coffee agro-tourism in Bali Province using MULTIPOL analysis.