PERHITUNGAN VALUE AT RISK KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN ASING KE BALI

Abstract

The development of the tourism industry in Bali is very fast compared to other regions in Indonesia. This is due to the fascination of Bali which fascinates tourists, such as culture, customs and natural beauty. The rapid development of tourism in Bali requires tourism risk management. The purpose of this study is to calculate the Value At Risk (VaR) of Chinese, British and American tourists visiting Bali. The study was conducted using the VaR method with the GARCH (1,1) and GJR (1,1) models. Chinese tourist visit data is homocedasticity so it cannot proceed to GARCH (1.1) and GJR (1.1) modeling. VaR value of British and American tourist visits using the GARCH (1.1) and GJR (1.1) models at 95% confidence levels respectively -69.2% and -43.6 with an average VaR value of -56, 4%, and -69.3% and -44.7% with an average VaR of -57%. This means that if the Bali Government targets the number of tourist visits to be 7,100,000 people with a tourism promotion cost of Rp.134.1 per person, then there will be at least 4,004,400 people visiting Bali. So the investment costs incurred by the Provincial Government of Bali for tourism promotion of Rp. 536,990,040.