PERAMALAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ARMAX DENGAN NILAI KURS DAN EKSPOR-IMPOR SEBAGAI FAKTOR EKSOGEN

  • PUTU IKA OKTIYARI LAKSMI Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
  • KOMANG DHARMAWAN Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
  • LUH PUTU IDA HARINI Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Abstract

Forecasting is science to estimate occurrence of the future. This matter can be conducted by entangling intake of past data and place to the next period with a mathematical form. This research aims to estimate the number of foreign tourists visiting Bali models using autoregressive moving average exogenous (ARMAX). The data used in this study is the number of tourists in Australia and the number of tourists in the RRC as a variable Y, and foreign currency exchange rate AUD, Chinese Yuan, and Export Import as the X factor from the period July 2009 to July 2014. In the analysis can be obtained in the best ARMAX models of the number of tourists in Australia is ARMAX(1,2,2) and the best model of the number of tourists in the RRC does not exist because the data for the ARMAX model parameters tourists no significant RRC.

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Author Biographies

PUTU IKA OKTIYARI LAKSMI, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
KOMANG DHARMAWAN, Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
LUH PUTU IDA HARINI, Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University
Published
2014-11-28
How to Cite
LAKSMI, PUTU IKA OKTIYARI; DHARMAWAN, KOMANG; IDA HARINI, LUH PUTU. PERAMALAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ARMAX DENGAN NILAI KURS DAN EKSPOR-IMPOR SEBAGAI FAKTOR EKSOGEN. E-Jurnal Matematika, [S.l.], v. 3, n. 4, p. 138 - 145, nov. 2014. ISSN 2303-1751. Available at: <https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/mtk/article/view/11995>. Date accessed: 11 dec. 2024. doi: https://doi.org/10.24843/MTK.2014.v03.i04.p076.
Section
Articles

Keywords

forecasting; ARMAX model; the number tourists