AKURASI MOVING AVERAGE DALAM PREDIKSI SAHAM LQ45 DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

Abstrak

This study aims to test and provide empirical evidence of the accuracy of moving average technical analysis in predicting the direction of stock price movement of LQ45 stocks at the Jakarta Stock Exchange. In order to meet the objective of this research, sample of 37 stocks were collected with purposive sampling technique. Stocks that were selected as sample were stock those that experienced Golden Cross and Death Cross during observation period, February to July 2019. Data were collected through Esmart application. To test the research hypothesis, the statistical differences between the predictions and the reality of stock price movement were tested using Mann-Whitney non-parametric test. This study found that there is no statistical difference between the predictions and the reality of stock price movement. Thus, this study provides empirical evidence of the accuracy of moving average in predicting the direction of stock price movement of LQ45 stocks at the Jakarta Stock Exchange. The finding of this study can be used as a reference for the investor in selecting appropriate technical analysis method that can assist them in making sound investment decisions.

Keywords: Technical Analysis; Accuracy of Moving Average; Stock; Investment Decision